The Race To The White House

Donald Trump winning the presidential elections has shocked many people around the world. Especially people who are in the business of calling the shots in the elections are startled by the results. Most of them predicted that Hillary would win and walk away with the title as “The President”. Well, sadly all of them had predicted it wrong except Allan Lichtman.

Allan Lichtman is a historian working at the American University and he was the first to declare that Donald Trump would will the elections. Even during the final weeks of the campaign. Lichtman stuck to his predictions. He based his predictions according to a set of 13 questions that have been designed in the true or false format. These questions gauged the performance of the party that was holding the White House.

According to Lichtman, elections are a judgement of the government’s governance skills. The drama of the rest of the election season virtually has no meaning. He also said that people do not count for the twists and turns, the speeches, debates and other campaign tricks.

The coverage by the media about the elections resembles that of a horse race. The deciding factor is who has had a good day and who hasn’t. The pollsters end up making money by keeping tabs on the horse race as to who is ahead and who is ranking behind. The fact that it is dealt with in this manner makes it misleading.

Lichtman has been successful in predicting the winners for the ninth time in a row. He hopes that this makes people rethink about the way election and politics are looked at. He hopes that in near future, politics, history and governance is brought together before making their decision to vote and not based on the media hype surrounding the elections.

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Best Countries To Start Your Business

Starting business takes a lot of effort. Apart from the expertise and the funds that is required to start the business, legal approvals or approvals from various officials in each country is important too. These rules for approving a business opportunity varies from country to country. In countries such as New Zealand, it takes a day to get an approval whereas in Venezuela it takes 230 days. The stark difference is alarming. Due to this, New Zealand remains as the easiest country to start your business in and Venezuela being the toughest.

According to the survey that was conducted by World Bank, it has been estimated that New Zealand has taken the top spot in the rankings being the easiest place on the planet to do business and Venezuela has ranked 187th out of the 190 economies. New Zealand has gone past Singapore which was holding the top rank for the past decade.

Some of the indicators that the World Bank was looking at was starting a business, permits with respect to construction, property registration and the facility to avail credit. United States ranked down from the overall table into the eight position from the long standing seventh. However, it was ranked high for getting credit and the way they deal with firms that are insolvent.

Although United States ranked top on some categories, the overall rating for the country is at 51st place. Due to the recent economic reforms, three countries have improved in their business side. They are Brunei, Kazakhstan and Kenya. Somalia is the worst economy according to the survey. The war that has been launched against most of the east African nations has pushed their rank under paying taxes to the bottom. In fact Somalia has no tax system in place which leads to limited protection for minority investors.

Some of the other nations that has ranked in the top ten category are: New Zealand, Singapore, Denmark, Hong Kong, South Korea, Norway, United Kingdom, United States, Sweden and Macedonia.

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Business Confidence Going Down Due To Economic Uncertainty

Business confidence is at a four year low with the concerns on the economic uncertainty on the rise experiencing a slow down as a result of the referendum. There is a 12% slip in the sales expectations which is 38% lower than in January as per the Lloyds Bank’s Business reports. Economic uncertainties are considered to be a threat to the growth over the next coming months. The employment opportunities and investment has gone down across sectors according to reports. To add to this, the fall of 30 points in the wholesale and the retail business including hospitality and leisure is a bane.

According to the Managing director of Lloyds, Tim Hilton, the January report responsible for the blow in the confidence was in view of the latest political and economic shocks. The report gathers that the export demands have also waned with the global export sales plummeting by 20%. The pound value is at 13 year low with Britain deciding to leave EU. Though the UK goods are competitive in the global market helping the exports grow. Employment is also under pressure with a lot of companies expected to recruit going down for the fourth consecutive survey. The increase in the head count has fallen by around 14 points and those looking for an increase in the capital expenditure were lowered by 14% moving to zero.